Premier League · resolved market
Will Swansea City AFC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x184c97d1c322d027ff425dd1c59b6a6e82fa37855ae08f26e44842fec8851913
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 70c | 373.52$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.15 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf07…5129backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 56c | 260.89$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.04 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 42c | 219.51$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 533 | 44.8%239 W · 294 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f4…3c57backed Yes | 32c | 161$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e73…e5c1backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…0209backed Yes | 76c | 79.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 23c | 51.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 69c | 31.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Swansea City AFC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-01-17?No won
- Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.