Tennis · resolved market
Campinas: Johan Nikles vs Gustavo Heide
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x189c3a226a146adfd98f260619f5bc9ce81cec3196e507b1b732320d50b3666f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gustavo Heideof Johan Nikles, Gustavo Heide
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a18…61a0backed Johan Nikles | 2c | 30,035$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.89 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | +27.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Johan Nikles | 5c | 6,361$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.69 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Johan Nikles | 5c | 5,387$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.95 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…0fa1backed Johan Nikles | 7c | 4,796$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.87 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Johan Nikles | 3c | 2,216$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 377 | 41.4%156 W · 221 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Johan Nikles | 11c | 2,059$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.53 | 282 | 41.8%118 W · 164 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Johan Nikles | 12c | 2,051$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.82 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Johan Nikles | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Johan Nikles | 13c | 1,862$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.08 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Johan Nikles | 8c | 1,681$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.3 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Johan Nikles | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874f…a13dbacked Johan Nikles | 12c | 1,495$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.9 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Johan Nikles | 9c | 1,029$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b58…8692backed Johan Nikles | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf84b…6455backed Johan Nikles | 5c | 954.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 121 | 7.4%9 W · 112 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Johan Nikles | 5c | 874.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Johan Nikles | 10c | 871.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 1,425 | 55.1%785 W · 640 L | +23.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Johan Nikles | 17c | 856.93$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Johan Nikles | 13c | 836.32$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 977 | 45.2%442 W · 535 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Johan Nikles | 10c | 831.59$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Johan Nikles | 17c | 653.64$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 1,512 | 24.1%364 W · 1,148 L | -41.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Johan Nikles | 16c | 639.64$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…9d5dbacked Johan Nikles | 4c | 599.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Johan Nikles | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 224 | 49.6%111 W · 113 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa7…d4febacked Johan Nikles | 14c | 474.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…e82abacked Johan Nikles | 8c | 471.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 440 | 38.4%169 W · 271 L | -27.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…540dbacked Johan Nikles | 5c | 390.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Johan Nikles | 10c | 377.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 288 | 35.1%101 W · 187 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…ca81backed Johan Nikles | 13c | 376.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 217 | 20.3%44 W · 173 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ba…ed14backed Johan Nikles | 11c | 354.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Johan Nikles | 4c | 332.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 166 | 45.2%75 W · 91 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…5fd8backed Johan Nikles | 3c | 301.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Johan Nikles | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Johan Nikles | 8c | 257.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff3…07c3backed Johan Nikles | 11c | 247.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8139…1ed3backed Johan Nikles | 11c | 247$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad0…461abacked Johan Nikles | 11c | 241.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768a…ae56backed Johan Nikles | 11c | 237.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Johan Nikles | 12c | 236.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3dc…cfbdbacked Johan Nikles | 11c | 231.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…e489backed Johan Nikles | 11c | 224$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f4…4856backed Johan Nikles | 11c | 221.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…626dbacked Johan Nikles | 7c | 210.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 279 | 36.2%101 W · 178 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Johan Nikles | 11c | 209.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…2b69backed Johan Nikles | 10c | 208.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Johan Nikles | 11c | 197.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…0e08backed Johan Nikles | 10c | 173.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Johan Nikles | 13c | 170.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 198 | 51%101 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Johan Nikles | 18c | 132.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Johan Nikles | 8c | 130.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebde…1de0backed Johan Nikles | 9c | 128.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 908 | 34.1%310 W · 598 L | -43.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…ed2bbacked Johan Nikles | 11c | 122.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Johan Nikles | 16c | 115.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdb…98dbbacked Johan Nikles | 17c | 109.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…f71ebacked Johan Nikles | 12c | 106.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 390 | 39.5%154 W · 236 L | -46.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Johan Nikles | 18c | 106.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Johan Nikles | 15c | 80.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 567 | 54.5%309 W · 258 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9a…c347backed Johan Nikles | 16c | 67.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Gustavo Heide | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 980 | 55.4%543 W · 437 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Campinas: Johan Nikles vs Gustavo Heidethis page
- Nikles vs. Heide: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Nikles vs HeideHeide won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.