MLB · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18c0cdfaf8ee7d857ea2a92a7d8ce1646d4fa1fec1d12079eb87dd5109c945fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 47c | 1,098$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.12 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 53c | 925.55$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.01 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 340 | 51.2%174 W · 166 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 54c | 180.58$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2318…25cfbacked Under | 47c | 55.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…30b4backed Under | 46c | 54.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c0…59bcbacked Over | 58c | 47.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ed…57c1backed Over | 58c | 47.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…bc07backed Under | 46c | 46.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2318…59cebacked Over | 58c | 46.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…9297backed Under | 46c | 46.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbd…8a9fbacked Under | 47c | 45.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7b…0f9fbacked Over | 58c | 44.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb72…fa52backed Under | 47c | 44.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832a…d408backed Over | 58c | 44.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…dc24backed Over | 58c | 43.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcef…d740backed Under | 47c | 42.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c52…215ebacked Over | 58c | 42.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4a…3461backed Over | 58c | 42.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0240…0f61backed Under | 47c | 38.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…4049backed Over | 58c | 37.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e75…a01cbacked Under | 46c | 35.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cardinals vs. Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Cardinals vs. RaysRays won
- Spread: Rays (-1.5)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.