South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Lanús vs. CA Talleres: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18d48e965029d9b25cc32fd6a73dc3f83ddf3797c9f4c29eb6a4a69b07ee8fdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 12,964$8,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,981.54 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 30c | 8,333$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,832.88 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…582dbacked Over | 26c | 4,959$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,655.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 4,164$2,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,867.24 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Over | 29c | 1,365$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +32%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 36c | 856.18$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.42 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 64c | 625$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 33c | 600.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.39 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 43c | 469.65$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.95 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 64c | 308.62$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.62 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 239.25$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.32 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 48c | 219.81$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.81 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 33c | 152.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.58 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 65c | 151.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 71c | 127.29$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4263…8692backed Under | 68c | 104.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e74…93bcbacked Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 69c | 33.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Under | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Under | 75c | 32.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a75…9d4fbacked Under | 63c | 18.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Lanús vs. CA Talleres: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Lanús vs. CA Talleres: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Talleres: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Talleres: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.