NHL · resolved market
Predators vs. Senators
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18f1f2975ca5267be03e29a65e93b92a208cfd7c97bdac7ba5655d98ec94cea7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Senatorsof Predators, Senators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Predators | 45c | 1,134$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.11 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Senators | 55c | 1,021$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.3 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Predators | 45c | 645.67$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.33 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Senators | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Predators | 10c | 271.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 313 | 34.8%109 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Predators | 6c | 239.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Senators | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Predators | 11c | 184.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…12a3backed Predators | 45c | 149.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Senators | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Predators | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Senators | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe344…456dbacked Senators | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…8d25backed Predators | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0a…66a5backed Senators | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…4b34backed Predators | 46c | 58.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8326…de76backed Predators | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb6…9d14backed Senators | 54c | 46.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…e625backed Predators | 46c | 45.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f9…65afbacked Predators | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf63…25d1backed Senators | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf003…b000backed Senators | 54c | 36.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…dee1backed Senators | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…7addbacked Senators | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Predators | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 231 | 44.6%103 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42fb…5ab2backed Predators | 46c | 32.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb381…e9b3backed Senators | 53c | 28.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…bb7ebacked Predators | 47c | 28.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ea…1dabbacked Senators | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…c4fdbacked Predators | 47c | 21.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…0642backed Senators | 53c | 21.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea8…400fbacked Senators | 55c | 19.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked Senators | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…947fbacked Senators | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.