CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Ground Zero (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup 1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1959b3ea2309072571a8fd39d83fbf3fa763accd8594713bbabeb2627134cdb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- THUNDER dOWNUNDERof THUNDER dOWNUNDER, Ground Zero
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 73c | 3,000$2,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.79 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Ground Zero | 27c | 3,000$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.29 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 72c | 1,000$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.58 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 73c | 600.93$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.95 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked Ground Zero | 28c | 492.11$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.79 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Ground Zero | 25c | 457.59$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.88 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -14.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d6…0550backed Ground Zero | 24c | 403.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d1…f540backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Ground Zero | 28c | 280$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Ground Zero | 27c | 230$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 328 | 45.1%148 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 76c | 229.91$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Ground Zero | 27c | 210.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 76c | 149.3$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 157 | 32.5%51 W · 106 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ground Zero | 10c | 135.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…7cccbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 72c | 133.21$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 454 | 50.2%228 W · 226 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a66…a4f4backed Ground Zero | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ground Zero | 27c | 123.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…b2a1backed Ground Zero | 27c | 111.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Ground Zero | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 248 | 50.4%125 W · 123 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Ground Zero | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Ground Zero | 32c | 69.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Ground Zero | 27c | 66.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Ground Zero | 23c | 66.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0846…a401backed Ground Zero | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 77c | 39.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 59c | 31.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,043 | 57.3%598 W · 445 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x680d…98b8backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 75 | 69.3%52 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a93…36babacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 78c | 28.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00c…178bbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…b344backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 75c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.