MLB · resolved market
Nationals vs. Cubs: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x196688bf9636617506af60c59b306abdaf8b3b87353f3d6aa94674ba1a886a10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 50c | 4,016$2,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,007.78 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 50c | 1,125$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.71 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Over | 50c | 680.14$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Under | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Over | 52c | 580$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 46c | 106.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 58.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c6…f6cabacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Under | 57c | 43.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nationals vs. Cubs: O/U 10.5this page
- Nationals vs. CubsCubs won
- Spread: Cubs (-1.5)Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.