South American Leagues · resolved market
CA River Plate vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a11029e4c6b0293bc421a3d268aac67e8cf0508bf1ce6b4ceb02ffce57989b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Over | 12c | 2,710$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.17 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +11.9wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 341.06$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.34 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 142.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 70c | 92.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 33c | 83.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 29c | 82.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 48 | 85.4%41 W · 7 L | +8.5wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1ab4backed Over | 71c | 77.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 42c | 71.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfb…b96cbacked Over | 20c | 71.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 69c | 43.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff1…c554backed Over | 72c | 41.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 28c | 41.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8687…1db0backed Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 64c | 40.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 31c | 33.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 60c | 18.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA River Plate vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 1.5this page
- CA River Plate vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)CA Tucumán won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.