South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8753a2c75150326a32dd107e10875803bb66516aa481773286b173a054c79adb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CA Tucumánof CA River Plate, CA Tucumán
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed CA Tucumán | 66c | 15,244$10,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,184.8 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked CA River Plate | 34c | 11,363$3,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,863.45 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed CA Tucumán | 65c | 4,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 248 | 55.2%137 W · 111 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked CA River Plate | 38c | 3,095$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.18 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked CA Tucumán | 65c | 3,000$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked CA River Plate | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed CA Tucumán | 65c | 1,750$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.5 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed CA Tucumán | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed CA Tucumán | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed CA Tucumán | 64c | 700$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed CA River Plate | 36c | 690$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.4 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed CA Tucumán | 65c | 650$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed CA Tucumán | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 213 | 58.7%125 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed CA Tucumán | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked CA Tucumán | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked CA River Plate | 34c | 364$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked CA Tucumán | 65c | 328.93$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.13 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed CA Tucumán | 65c | 292$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked CA Tucumán | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked CA Tucumán | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 203 | 60.6%123 W · 80 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed CA River Plate | 34c | 240$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked CA Tucumán | 77c | 221.08$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed CA River Plate | 35c | 215.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed CA Tucumán | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CA Tucumán | 63c | 189.19$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked CA River Plate | 37c | 189.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed CA River Plate | 22c | 189$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed CA Tucumán | 63c | 182.22$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed CA Tucumán | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked CA Tucumán | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed CA Tucumán | 65c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked CA River Plate | 37c | 107.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed CA Tucumán | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed CA Tucumán | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked CA Tucumán | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 153 | 59.5%91 W · 62 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed CA River Plate | 23c | 99.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…6478backed CA River Plate | 34c | 88.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed CA Tucumán | 77c | 83.56$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…1a1fbacked CA River Plate | 33c | 76.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed CA Tucumán | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed CA River Plate | 33c | 64.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec1…efe6backed CA River Plate | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed CA River Plate | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked CA Tucumán | 66c | 54.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…3561backed CA River Plate | 37c | 54.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed CA Tucumán | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed CA River Plate | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…311fbacked CA River Plate | 40c | 46.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed CA Tucumán | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed CA Tucumán | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked CA Tucumán | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed CA Tucumán | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked CA Tucumán | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked CA Tucumán | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed CA Tucumán | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef30…0d30backed CA Tucumán | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked CA Tucumán | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)this page
- CA River Plate vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.