Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Solana Sierra vs Moyuka Uchijima
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a2c2bb096349c053883de87eddb450079cc45e5a3f2f633aa69b178ca56ef72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Uchijimaof Sierra, Uchijima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Uchijima | 65c | 2,592$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.84 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Uchijima | 75c | 1,674$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.72 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sierra | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Uchijima | 35c | 999.98$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Sierra | 32c | 953.47$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.86 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sierra | 25c | 917.42$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.33 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Sierra | 36c | 894.95$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Sierra | 66c | 864$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.84 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Uchijima | 36c | 646$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sierra | 64c | 636$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.04 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Uchijima | 33c | 400$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Sierra | 65c | 335.2$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.88 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Sierra | 39c | 272.43$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.49 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Sierra | 41c | 254.71$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.34 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Sierra | 65c | 193.78$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Uchijima | 60c | 183.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Sierra | 56c | 141.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked Uchijima | 35c | 122.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 206 | 43.2%89 W · 117 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b86…7899backed Uchijima | 62c | 97.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sierra | 16c | 86.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Sierra | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Sierra | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed Sierra | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Sierra | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1b…b02fbacked Uchijima | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Uchijima | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sierra | 66c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Uchijima | 67c | 19.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.