Tennis · resolved market
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Varvara Gracheva vs Jessica Pegula
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a3d86c63844bb6853808e362878893fdebb4402a352ae790f7af95af30acc01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Gracheva, Pegula
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Gracheva | 13c | 10,237$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.75 | 765 | 46.8%358 W · 407 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Gracheva | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.99 | 389 | 55.3%215 W · 174 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Gracheva | 13c | 7,672$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.39 | 231 | 26%60 W · 171 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Gracheva | 6c | 5,293$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.39 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Gracheva | 0c | 4,986$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…a5b8backed Gracheva | 18c | 3,965$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Gracheva | 10c | 2,661$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.82 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Gracheva | 8c | 2,251$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…0b58backed Gracheva | 3c | 1,600$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Gracheva | 16c | 1,520$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.19 | 943 | 55.7%525 W · 418 L | +22.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Gracheva | 7c | 1,020$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Gracheva | 14c | 1,000$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.22 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…f66ebacked Gracheva | 4c | 1,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +85%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Gracheva | 13c | 709$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Gracheva | 15c | 707.55$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Gracheva | 14c | 620$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff2…49febacked Gracheva | 15c | 587.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Gracheva | 14c | 518$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…97a4backed Gracheva | 12c | 501.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Pegula | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Gracheva | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ab…b0b3backed Gracheva | 24c | 425$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Gracheva | 13c | 376.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Gracheva | 15c | 350$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Gracheva | 15c | 265$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Gracheva | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Gracheva | 7c | 218.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f6…b8c6backed Gracheva | 7c | 203.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Gracheva | 15c | 173.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 248 | 26.2%65 W · 183 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Gracheva | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…75c6backed Gracheva | 20c | 105.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Gracheva | 14c | 102.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 153 | 43.8%67 W · 86 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Gracheva | 13c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 313 | 32.3%101 W · 212 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Gracheva | 15c | 79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 656 | 47.6%312 W · 344 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Gracheva | 16c | 77.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…261fbacked Gracheva | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 243 | 57.6%140 W · 103 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…0b66backed Pegula | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 233 | 64.4%150 W · 83 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Varvara Gracheva vs Jessica Pegulathis page
- Gracheva vs. Pegula: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Gracheva vs. Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Gracheva (+1.5)Pegula won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.