NHL · resolved market
AHL: Syracuse Crunch vs. Toronto Marlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a6072e9966b7e55d29f43fe4e053897bc24362c057a8b85e6d632396a1517a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Marliesof Syracuse Crunch, Toronto Marlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0097…8401backed Toronto Marlies | 39c | 1,045$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…bdcdbacked Toronto Marlies | 37c | 888$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e84…858fbacked Toronto Marlies | 39c | 850$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…3154backed Toronto Marlies | 39c | 800$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…efd0backed Toronto Marlies | 39c | 620$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502f…efaabacked Syracuse Crunch | 61c | 607$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ff…ebe9backed Syracuse Crunch | 61c | 497$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1651…7494backed Syracuse Crunch | 61c | 490$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…5e64backed Syracuse Crunch | 61c | 438$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x432c…17debacked Syracuse Crunch | 61c | 360$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b7…9581backed Syracuse Crunch | 63c | 346$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x346b…3df4backed Syracuse Crunch | 61c | 320$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…87dfbacked Syracuse Crunch | 61c | 303$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x840f…95a9backed Syracuse Crunch | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…9bf2backed Syracuse Crunch | 64c | 272$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Syracuse Crunch | 63c | 167.45$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.35 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…1cf9backed Toronto Marlies | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b9…0fc9backed Toronto Marlies | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e80…56c5backed Toronto Marlies | 43c | 23.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.