TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will May 2024 show an increase between 1.03°C-1.09°C

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$142,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,887

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,042 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba36…27eabacked Yes1c62,044$806 inLost-$805.772927.6%8 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes1c16,988$158 inLost-$158.11520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-73%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x415a…8f4abacked Yes2c9,505$171 inLost-$171.09520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+159%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Yes3c1,000$28 inLost-$27.51030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes3c735.57$19 inLost-$18.77,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5b…7582backed Yes2c611.11$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf45…d297backed Yes2c526.32$10 inLost-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes4c310$11 inLost-$11.144652.2%24 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.