MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a9d164dd77e44a887e87e0fe1260503b8e117b190eefe429d4562bb93bb10f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,027 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cincinnati Reds | 0c | 3,847$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 774.17$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.21 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 748.94$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.68 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 540.62$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.37 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…4523backed Cincinnati Reds | 23c | 289.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 263$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.61 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 237.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 233.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 226$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 184$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 166$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 160$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Cincinnati Reds | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Cincinnati Reds | 18c | 137.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 104.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 96.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8911…5ffabacked Cincinnati Reds | 18c | 71.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 61.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 341 | 64.2%219 W · 122 L | +22.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 17c | 60.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 47.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 39.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 32.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 26.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 24.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…e653backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c17bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 18.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.