Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1abbd25c4778581b36700b8dd6b6616d4c292dd9f43c3a44998a11d9d3da318f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 222.71$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 37c | 149.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 46c | 126.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 126.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 111.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 66c | 98.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 79.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 34c | 72.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 65.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 46c | 62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 61.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 52c | 60.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 55.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 51.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 43c | 46.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 45c | 46.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 49c | 46.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 35.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 35.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes | 60c | 34.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 51c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 62c | 33.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 54c | 28.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 60c | 23.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfc…26febacked Yes | 65c | 23.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 66c | 22.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 49c | 21.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 57c | 21.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 55c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 57c | 19.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 62c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 66c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.