TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Indiana Hoosiers (-22.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Siena Saintsof Indiana Hoosiers, Siena Saints
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,919
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,919

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,919 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x226b…cad6backed Siena Saints51c5,000$2,550 inWon+$2,449.9922645.6%103 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Indiana Hoosiers49c4,573$2,241 inLost-$2,240.8174649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Indiana Hoosiers49c2,600$1,274 inLost-$1,27417650.6%89 W · 87 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe899…19babacked Siena Saints51c1,502$766 inWon+$735.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Siena Saints51c1,039$530 inWon+$509.111,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Siena Saints53c496.9$263 inWon+$234.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Indiana Hoosiers47c327.74$153 inLost-$153.2649746.5%231 W · 266 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Indiana Hoosiers48c210.42$101 inLost-$10112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Siena Saints52c200$104 inWon+$96.2235243.2%152 W · 200 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Indiana Hoosiers49c159.79$78 inLost-$78.34,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Indiana Hoosiers49c142.86$70 inLost-$7079448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Indiana Hoosiers49c120$59 inLost-$58.81,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Indiana Hoosiers48c70.54$34 inLost-$33.863,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe44a…c4f8backed Indiana Hoosiers51c43.94$22 inLost-$22.41475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick47cpaid+85.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Siena Saints53c35.95$19 inWon+$16.912355.3%68 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Hoosiers49c30.68$15 inLost-$14.925,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.