Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: unknow vs BALU - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bfa40274af776f52ccc98c2e71ba16517a2489da37739fde867175b41481be5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BALUof unknow, BALU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked unknow | 21c | 64,715$13,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,367.49 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1a…0208backed BALU | 77c | 49,168$37,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,352.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +4,932.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e5…f069backed unknow | 27c | 34,978$9,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,308.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed BALU | 71c | 13,813$9,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,957.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +230%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed unknow | 30c | 8,013$2,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.82 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…4933backed unknow | 20c | 7,259$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.39 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…c3f1backed BALU | 75c | 4,260$3,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed unknow | 32c | 3,700$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.99 | 280 | 44.3%124 W · 156 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…56e3backed unknow | 26c | 3,047$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed BALU | 69c | 3,039$2,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.98 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…36ffbacked BALU | 58c | 1,104$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed BALU | 65c | 949.78$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked unknow | 1c | 750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…d92fbacked unknow | 35c | 346.98$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…7a07backed unknow | 35c | 316$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.92 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x628f…b212backed unknow | 10c | 190$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +2,654.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed unknow | 16c | 187$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked unknow | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed unknow | 29c | 74.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…3bcdbacked unknow | 33c | 74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed BALU | 69c | 67.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x372f…182abacked unknow | 19c | 53.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeec…707bbacked unknow | 31c | 34.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b79…2618backed BALU | 51c | 32.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…0172backed unknow | 37c | 31.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…9678backed BALU | 63c | 31.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked BALU | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…a1e8backed BALU | 69c | 14.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: unknow vs BALU - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: unknow vs BALU (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Open Qualifier PlayoffsBALU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.