Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c6344c3f9654f024250b8d0fab82655f04a1f6a78ba96326ff1167ba23121df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 19c | 12,251$2,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,278.53 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 12c | 908.74$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.91 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1901…21c8backed Under | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 52c | 579.68$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Under | 50c | 579.67$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.84 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 51c | 198.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 163.03$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 52c | 146.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 129$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceda…e67bbacked Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 50c | 124$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 51c | 120.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 111.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Under | 49c | 77.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f1…8f46backed Over | 24c | 70.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 47c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Over | 53c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 49c | 42.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 51c | 40.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…cf5fbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa7…a29fbacked Over | 52c | 38.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16ff…cc35backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990c…5c30backed Under | 53c | 24.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…ef0cbacked Over | 48c | 23.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 138 | 59.4%82 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…48bbbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. FC St. Pauli: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Köln vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)FC St. Pauli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.