Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f3da3d0d874213820f1f8eac59bf06c6f4eba145a848b498da5856c38f45b21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 1,952$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.74 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 30c | 1,659$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.83 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 36c | 1,122$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 27c | 499.58$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.69 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 66c | 445.74$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.42 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1901…21c8backed Under | 32c | 250.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Under | 68c | 170.04$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.63 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 59c | 94.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 77c | 82.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…a38abacked Over | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 52.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 21.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…bc89backed Over | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Over | 69c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. FC St. Pauli: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Köln vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Köln vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)FC St. Pauli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.