Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. Angers SCO: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d9331c8de1c8d7c3d540b0e0e16757a11ae5a5564e940c1d6d5aa89b4804795
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 31c | 902.83$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.06 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…c2c4backed Under | 70c | 712.06$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…b020backed Under | 73c | 400$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 64c | 292.44$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.83 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 241$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.71 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…a953backed Under | 62c | 120.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Over | 24c | 112.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.74 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 30c | 108.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Under | 60c | 94.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Over | 40c | 89.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Under | 69c | 81.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…9dfebacked Over | 41c | 68.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Over | 35c | 56.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Under | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c91…2ae0backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 62c | 46.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Angers SCO: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)Angers SCO won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.