Lol · resolved market
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Gentle Mates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1df6e0263fe3a71dc40697d290c9bec4708e1a9dc425ca1abbeab70f5f013ed0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gentle Matesof Karmine Corp Blue, Gentle Mates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Karmine Corp Blue | 68c | 5,000$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 1,592 | 53.7%855 W · 737 L | +57.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Gentle Mates | 32c | 4,800$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,264 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Gentle Mates | 32c | 4,470$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,039.71 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Karmine Corp Blue | 68c | 4,192$2,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850.63 | 669 | 47.8%320 W · 349 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Gentle Mates | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Karmine Corp Blue | 67c | 1,836$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.73 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Gentle Mates | 33c | 1,792$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.48 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Gentle Mates | 34c | 738.47$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.42 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Karmine Corp Blue | 66c | 726.48$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.82 | 183 | 40.4%74 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Karmine Corp Blue | 65c | 695.86$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.41 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Gentle Mates | 33c | 655$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.85 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Karmine Corp Blue | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 508 | 48.4%246 W · 262 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Karmine Corp Blue | 68c | 278.06$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.08 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Karmine Corp Blue | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Gentle Mates | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 261 | 64.4%168 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Gentle Mates | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Gentle Mates | 33c | 166.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.67 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e18…3082backed Karmine Corp Blue | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x140f…5022backed Karmine Corp Blue | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Gentle Mates | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 417 | 43.9%183 W · 234 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae1…7dddbacked Karmine Corp Blue | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.