Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 9.5 Total Corners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e24290493d24dfea87309752b4d886eb5581162fa94c0fc3a1db99062048903
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,880 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1263…fddcbacked Under | 54c | 555.69$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked Over | 48c | 231.47$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.61 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 46c | 164.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.88 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…b1b8backed Under | 54c | 111.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 49c | 98.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…6596backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Over | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Over | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Over | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3317…ab1ebacked Under | 48c | 27.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Over | 49c | 24.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…48a7backed Over | 53c | 22.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.