Chess · resolved market
Will Anish Giri vs. Andrey Esipenko end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e3270e7d5a9730051c3f1b199c298b3863771b5caea089655ec7dbb0756cc4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 43c | 299.97$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…d95fbacked Yes | 57c | 173.41$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Yes | 57c | 133.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed No | 44c | 105.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked No | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 25c | 84.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Yes | 75c | 72.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 55c | 62.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x485d…47edbacked Yes | 58c | 38.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anish Giri vs. Andrey Esipenko end in a draw?this page
- Will Andrey Esipenko win on 2026-04-11 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?No won
- Will Anish Giri win on 2026-04-11 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.