NBA · resolved market
May 6 NBA Parlay: Cavaliers and Timberwolves both win?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e696bde67c42eb275d9454c501f9bf9496291480f61fd3c6ded3aaa6a4e56e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1484…cafebacked No | 51c | 3,213$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.02 | 297 | 38.7%115 W · 182 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes | 49c | 2,017$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.14 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Yes | 7c | 700$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 143 | 4.9%7 W · 136 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Yes | 50c | 684.51$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.25 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d9…50c5backed Yes | 10c | 498.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Yes | 52c | 434.77$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.9 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5915…536bbacked Yes | 52c | 378.44$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.59 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 48c | 371$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.68 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 52c | 331$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.88 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 49c | 202.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.42 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d01…5c33backed Yes | 52c | 146.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 48c | 65.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Yes | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf785…05edbacked No | 62c | 27.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 48c | 21.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.