Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on December 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e8b1868f554f62235672091fed0bb21ed873079fe35763a7cde0a988700a4c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1272…60b9backed No | 50c | 1,385$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…db72backed Yes | 50c | 1,385$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…0af4backed Yes | 50c | 1,385$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…9422backed No | 50c | 1,385$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…6233backed No | 50c | 1,385$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…62c9backed No | 50c | 1,385$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bf…f96abacked Yes | 50c | 1,385$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cb…4493backed Yes | 50c | 1,385$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ef…b084backed No | 50c | 1,385$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae64…84cbbacked Yes | 50c | 1,385$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843f…5696backed No | 50c | 1,384$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c7…552abacked No | 50c | 1,384$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…8e85backed Yes | 50c | 1,384$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e2…787cbacked Yes | 50c | 1,384$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…1ce4backed No | 50c | 1,384$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…e2debacked Yes | 50c | 1,384$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 40c | 103.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 58c | 58.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…9ffabacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…3c80backed Yes | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…b783backed No | 59c | 17.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on December 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on December 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on December 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.