Cricket · resolved market
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals - Who wins the toss?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e8ef58be3af3b3d5dbc51237b83b2b3d7362703b5aa4f99ff5f1c4b9cec9c7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lucknow Super Giantsof Lucknow Super Giants, Rajasthan Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked Lucknow Super Giants | 61c | 454.08$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.56 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…50c3backed Rajasthan Royals | 51c | 199.83$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…c9b3backed Lucknow Super Giants | 77c | 88.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 222 | 41.9%93 W · 129 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Lucknow Super Giants | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39e2…d3babacked Rajasthan Royals | 52c | 67.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…7ddebacked Rajasthan Royals | 51c | 63.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…1209backed Rajasthan Royals | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea8…47aabacked Lucknow Super Giants | 46c | 47.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8183…dd5bbacked Rajasthan Royals | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6064…cc6ebacked Lucknow Super Giants | 49c | 42.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fa…53cdbacked Rajasthan Royals | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 79 | 65.8%52 W · 27 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf9…8749backed Lucknow Super Giants | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f75…3018backed Rajasthan Royals | 53c | 35.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596c…28ebbacked Lucknow Super Giants | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a1…b0c7backed Lucknow Super Giants | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…1eecbacked Lucknow Super Giants | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62be…2175backed Rajasthan Royals | 52c | 19.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals - Who wins the toss?this page
- Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan RoyalsRajasthan Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.