Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Incarnate Word vs. Northwestern State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ee7ff95f1113d9159c843b882f19f2ab8ef52a0b2abcfe6d154c6fcca398ec0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northwestern Stateof Incarnate Word, Northwestern State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Northwestern State | 60c | 1,669$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.07 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…3165backed Incarnate Word | 48c | 1,145$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75db…2098backed Northwestern State | 52c | 1,140$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Incarnate Word | 40c | 954.39$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.07 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf139…d858backed Northwestern State | 52c | 844$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…81ffbacked Incarnate Word | 48c | 419$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e6…7f09backed Incarnate Word | 48c | 401$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 53cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…ed5cbacked Incarnate Word | 48c | 269$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e3…6450backed Northwestern State | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Incarnate Word | 44c | 191$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9908…f84ebacked Incarnate Word | 41c | 183$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5d…366ebacked Northwestern State | 59c | 131$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8a…9040backed Incarnate Word | 71c | 130$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Incarnate Word | 40c | 91.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49cb…a277backed Northwestern State | 29c | 68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ec…5b70backed Northwestern State | 29c | 68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Incarnate Word | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…b91fbacked Northwestern State | 59c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5d…b6f0backed Northwestern State | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63df…6aedbacked Incarnate Word | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1954…f713backed Incarnate Word | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Incarnate Word | 41c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfd…407fbacked Northwestern State | 29c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe4…a4d9backed Incarnate Word | 38c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bc…4211backed Incarnate Word | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc37…0f02backed Incarnate Word | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…7b1dbacked Incarnate Word | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…3d7ebacked Northwestern State | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1b…c11cbacked Incarnate Word | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8275…bb9cbacked Incarnate Word | 43c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2d…7756backed Northwestern State | 29c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +192.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…78cfbacked Incarnate Word | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…1e3ebacked Northwestern State | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7044…604dbacked Northwestern State | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d87…c301backed Northwestern State | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…3fb1backed Incarnate Word | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…c7eabacked Northwestern State | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x940d…1920backed Northwestern State | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf517…a771backed Incarnate Word | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…c4d6backed Incarnate Word | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fb…5cbdbacked Northwestern State | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…97acbacked Northwestern State | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8e…a0ddbacked Northwestern State | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288b…f3bdbacked Northwestern State | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048d…356abacked Northwestern State | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bf…ce44backed Incarnate Word | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7f…8068backed Northwestern State | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x737f…4c98backed Northwestern State | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9324…026abacked Incarnate Word | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4778…50c0backed Northwestern State | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…7b48backed Incarnate Word | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc084…3d02backed Northwestern State | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x691c…e746backed Northwestern State | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 56cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe043…1c14backed Incarnate Word | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…36edbacked Incarnate Word | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…525ebacked Incarnate Word | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…63d3backed Northwestern State | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…d08abacked Northwestern State | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b6…9c30backed Incarnate Word | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…b605backed Incarnate Word | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…3a2abacked Northwestern State | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e76…0309backed Incarnate Word | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa2…386cbacked Incarnate Word | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.