CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Legion vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: Asian Closed Qualifier Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f78e3b44b7a3691577aeb83c96cdd1b06854fb343a440f0490897d0d1bd1c1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Legionof Legion, THUNDER dOWNUNDER
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Legion | 71c | 1,502$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.6 | 5,876 | 37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L | +71.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed Legion | 11c | 1,097$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc25…4fa8backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 50c | 793.22$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.56 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 62c | 793.22$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.52 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +27.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda1a…3407backed Legion | 63c | 564.97$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.68 | 289 | 60.6%175 W · 114 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…5c4fbacked Legion | 61c | 417.47$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ac…ae05backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 24c | 417.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -64%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…2fc7backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 22c | 340$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 434 | 42.2%183 W · 251 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Legion | 74c | 338.3$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…d385backed Legion | 36c | 318.82$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37d…c735backed Legion | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +9.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 18c | 141.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 180 | 40.6%73 W · 107 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Legion | 16c | 127.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.85 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…7111backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 77c | 90$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 17c | 88.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 63c | 56.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 44c | 36.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 432 | 39.1%169 W · 263 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Legion vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: Asian Closed Qualifier Group Stagethis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.