South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-02-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f8ec3f3880d2c40fe28c91c7ef53dd4b65e8ceae14f2fbb01da8c6a2b1356de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 22c | 3,050$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 2,397$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.61 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 23c | 2,204$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.91 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 1,743$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.11 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked No | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 1c | 1,288$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 78c | 1,116$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.52 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 20c | 1,100$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.9 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 18c | 1,040$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.74 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…189dbacked Yes | 20c | 600$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 551.09$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.96 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 77c | 438.45$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 77c | 378.72$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.54 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 18c | 340$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Yes | 21c | 314$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 21c | 295$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 22c | 280$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 21c | 250$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 18c | 242.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75c…86d0backed Yes | 21c | 204.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…a1d7backed Yes | 19c | 184.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +223.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 77c | 180$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 23c | 113.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 77c | 105$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 100.93$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5863…04dbbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Yes | 24c | 88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 26.2%27 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 18c | 65.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 26.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…5bd6backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-02-13?this page
- Will CA Independiente vs. CA Lanús end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-02-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.