Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2056626c67cf99502bb25e97f1463bff5d5fcd4685a3a5042023c3cfa10ab172
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norwich City FCof Southampton FC, Norwich City FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Norwich City FC | 77c | 1,275$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.23 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Southampton FC | 26c | 961.75$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.31 | 150 | 30.7%46 W · 104 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Southampton FC | 21c | 443.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Norwich City FC | 77c | 160.52$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Norwich City FC | 72c | 137$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Norwich City FC | 74c | 125$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Norwich City FC | 72c | 91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Southampton FC | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Southampton FC | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Southampton FC | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Norwich City FC | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Southampton FC | 28c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Southampton FC | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Norwich City FC | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Norwich City FC | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Southampton FC (-1.5)this page
- Norwich City FC vs. Southampton FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Norwich City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Norwich City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Norwich City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.