NHL · resolved market
KHL: Lada Togliatti vs. CSKA Moscow
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2063211d0e7be5a3faddc7407330505ac2a6c165b10bd0c67a7f9bac46a4cf65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CSKA Moscowof Lada Togliatti, CSKA Moscow
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a53…cc07backed Lada Togliatti | 30c | 1,800$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bb…c8acbacked CSKA Moscow | 70c | 1,800$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…743cbacked Lada Togliatti | 30c | 1,582$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked CSKA Moscow | 74c | 1,360$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.95 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c4…e069backed Lada Togliatti | 30c | 1,319$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Lada Togliatti | 28c | 1,200$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…4511backed CSKA Moscow | 70c | 1,078$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…0312backed CSKA Moscow | 70c | 1,041$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Lada Togliatti | 29c | 855.59$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.68 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624f…7592backed Lada Togliatti | 30c | 757$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbf…d298backed CSKA Moscow | 70c | 735$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x439f…69a5backed Lada Togliatti | 30c | 724$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…aecebacked CSKA Moscow | 70c | 504$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…b357backed CSKA Moscow | 70c | 460$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e7…3e92backed CSKA Moscow | 70c | 429$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x395b…abcebacked Lada Togliatti | 30c | 411$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…42cbbacked Lada Togliatti | 30c | 324$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked CSKA Moscow | 71c | 314.34$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 67cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…220cbacked CSKA Moscow | 70c | 297$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…355fbacked CSKA Moscow | 70c | 295$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cc…6afcbacked CSKA Moscow | 70c | 278$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Lada Togliatti | 30c | 164.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked CSKA Moscow | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a35…aad5backed CSKA Moscow | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked CSKA Moscow | 68c | 101.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +9.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x763b…e1b8backed CSKA Moscow | 71c | 90.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Lada Togliatti | 29c | 68.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…9d56backed Lada Togliatti | 32c | 63.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…293ebacked CSKA Moscow | 71c | 58.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Lada Togliatti | 22c | 57.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Lada Togliatti | 20c | 51.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Lada Togliatti | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d6…8c34backed CSKA Moscow | 71c | 45.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f9…25f6backed CSKA Moscow | 71c | 43.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…02dbbacked CSKA Moscow | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…dcd9backed CSKA Moscow | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8b…d1dfbacked CSKA Moscow | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…0712backed CSKA Moscow | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked CSKA Moscow | 71c | 16.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…e30ebacked CSKA Moscow | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.