Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 8.5 Total Corners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x206d13b349ba297b43567507db518394441c52233e5040b68cbba33bbbec3280
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d67…6b86backed Under | 52c | 4,060$2,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,126.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 1,714$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.53 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 1,163$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.32 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 48c | 1,050$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 189 | 51.3%97 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Over | 47c | 305.6$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20e7…8b2dbacked Over | 51c | 162.31$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Under | 52c | 134.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 49c | 69.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf34…9e2bbacked Under | 50c | 48.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked Under | 50c | 32.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…70ffbacked Over | 52c | 26.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersthis page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 9.5 Total CornersOver won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: SS Lazio O/U 4.5 CornersOver won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.