Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Li (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20b47c7d4a3ab6a964905af329abd2600751a7f89eb2af7e2b253c171f784619
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zhangof Li, Zhang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Li | 55c | 1,883$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.62 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Zhang | 45c | 1,678$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.87 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked Li | 57c | 1,468$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.67 | 222 | 52.7%117 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Zhang | 42c | 722.93$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.3 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Zhang | 46c | 499.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.56 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Zhang | 43c | 431$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.82 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Zhang | 44c | 318$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.08 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Li | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Zhang | 47c | 109$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Li | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 240 | 55%132 W · 108 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c7…bf04backed Li | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8c…dfbebacked Zhang | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Li | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Li | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Li | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…6476backed Zhang | 49c | 24.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Li | 51c | 21.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Li | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Li | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Li (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5)this page
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ann Li vs Shuai ZhangAnn Li won
- Set 1 Winner: Li vs ZhangZhang won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.