TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Gwangju: Yuta Shimizu vs August Holmgren

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
August Holmgrenof Yuta Shimizu, August Holmgren
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,056
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,731

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,056 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84ad…bfb7backed August Holmgren80c1,799$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.414,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed August Holmgren70c1,404$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.441,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Yuta Shimizu33c1,348$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.8758734.6%203 W · 384 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Yuta Shimizu29c1,326$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.692,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Yuta Shimizu29c1,319$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.482,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94d4…d869backed August Holmgren38c1,257$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.4810246.1%47 W · 55 L+10.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+51.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1af0…6dd7backed Yuta Shimizu24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x478d…9ea9backed Yuta Shimizu62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed August Holmgren77c950.96$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.368,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Yuta Shimizu22c947.91$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20938013.9%53 W · 327 L-38.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-55.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yuta Shimizu30c910.6$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.7530131.9%96 W · 205 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Yuta Shimizu27c811.41$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.684,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Yuta Shimizu13c762.02$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.893,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed August Holmgren67c731.37$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.2650458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked August Holmgren63c705.6$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.2911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed August Holmgren66c605.45$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.8510646.2%49 W · 57 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked August Holmgren67c585.19$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.1184963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Yuta Shimizu33c559.63$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.6826545.3%120 W · 145 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c4…e6a5backed August Holmgren67c438.9$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8425957.1%148 W · 111 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Yuta Shimizu39c406.75$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4716136%58 W · 103 L-14.5wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Yuta Shimizu33c383.92$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6985250%426 W · 426 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yuta Shimizu63c348.22$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.971,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Yuta Shimizu35c341.44$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.916,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc6…0e57backed August Holmgren67c335.02$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.562060%12 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Yuta Shimizu21c310.27$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.451,48747.5%706 W · 781 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed August Holmgren66c294$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.967444.6%33 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked August Holmgren67c292.6$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.5629444.2%130 W · 164 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Yuta Shimizu47c283.6$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.059,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ce1…2f49backed Yuta Shimizu24c253.01$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.455648.2%27 W · 29 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Yuta Shimizu16c237.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.981,14247.3%540 W · 602 L+65.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Yuta Shimizu34c221.62$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.311,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Yuta Shimizu36c215.53$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.591,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Yuta Shimizu33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6686835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yuta Shimizu20c197.53$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.727,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yuta Shimizu30c188.35$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.471,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x782c…38c2backed August Holmgren67c175.56$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9316063.8%102 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yuta Shimizu33c159.54$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.657,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d78…a4ccbacked August Holmgren64c159.48$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4133055.8%184 W · 146 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed August Holmgren65c150.62$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7252341.5%217 W · 306 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed August Holmgren68c145.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.051,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Yuta Shimizu32c145.66$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.036,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cee…0d1ebacked August Holmgren67c130.91$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.218849.5%93 W · 95 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd4…56f1backed August Holmgren63c124.86$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.22254.5%12 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked August Holmgren65c122.4$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.391,76752.1%920 W · 847 L-2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed August Holmgren64c122.31$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.031,72552.2%901 W · 824 L-8.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Yuta Shimizu19c119.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4662140.7%253 W · 368 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb20…bea0backed Yuta Shimizu27c113.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2914132.6%46 W · 95 L-12.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x963a…9112backed Yuta Shimizu10c112.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.393953.8%21 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed August Holmgren68c107.94$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.745,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62ff…6b66backed Yuta Shimizu34c98.86$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.613836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6249…cee9backed August Holmgren67c84.31$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8212057.5%69 W · 51 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed August Holmgren66c81.17$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.697141.4%402 W · 569 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa64f…e598backed Yuta Shimizu19c80.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6413467.2%90 W · 44 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked August Holmgren62c75.01$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.651,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x782d…8211backed August Holmgren74c71.28$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5370456.8%400 W · 304 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Yuta Shimizu33c68.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4942344.2%187 W · 236 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x165b…711cbacked August Holmgren60c66.53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6126953.2%143 W · 126 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Yuta Shimizu33c66.42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9212933.3%43 W · 86 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6281…e326backed August Holmgren70c65.91$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.774562.2%28 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa888…e98cbacked Yuta Shimizu33c62.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4716459.1%97 W · 67 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yuta Shimizu33c62.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7497745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Yuta Shimizu41c58.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1215937.7%60 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x093b…4e14backed Yuta Shimizu32c58.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7917848.9%87 W · 91 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7061…b4aebacked Yuta Shimizu28c56.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0213856.5%78 W · 60 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked August Holmgren74c55.54$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.452,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked August Holmgren69c54.97$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8856754.5%309 W · 258 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba7…0baebacked Yuta Shimizu36c54.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x46f3…d816backed August Holmgren79c53.09$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.351855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed August Holmgren76c51.27$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.553,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Yuta Shimizu32c50.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3656817.4%99 W · 469 L-74.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked August Holmgren78c50.35$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8837058.6%217 W · 153 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked August Holmgren66c50.05$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.021,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Yuta Shimizu32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed August Holmgren67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51,15148.7%560 W · 591 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9158…ba55backed Yuta Shimizu33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.525745.9%118 W · 139 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yuta Shimizu35c49.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.73,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked August Holmgren73c49.19$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2888273.5%648 W · 234 L+19.8wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed August Holmgren64c47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.921,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa41…2239backed Yuta Shimizu37c44.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.415751%80 W · 77 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ded…68a3backed August Holmgren69c42.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3888560.2%533 W · 352 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c4…c3b0backed Yuta Shimizu34c42.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.366038.3%23 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed Yuta Shimizu26c40.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5174346.3%344 W · 399 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb691…b39dbacked August Holmgren54c37.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3343951.9%228 W · 211 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x537a…7447backed August Holmgren67c36.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0730351.8%157 W · 146 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed August Holmgren76c36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8291880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Yuta Shimizu50c34.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.461,22255%672 W · 550 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4b5…56abbacked August Holmgren60c31.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4114463.2%91 W · 53 L+12.6wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+16.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x76e5…af5ebacked August Holmgren64c30.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.017665.8%50 W · 26 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked August Holmgren38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7537153.9%200 W · 171 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73dd…6e9ebacked August Holmgren65c29.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.371947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked August Holmgren65c29.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1616552.7%87 W · 78 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28af…7de0backed August Holmgren69c28.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.824072.5%29 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed August Holmgren74c26.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8831563.5%200 W · 115 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf77c…61cabacked August Holmgren77c25.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8911846.6%55 W · 63 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a29…43bebacked August Holmgren73c20.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed August Holmgren75c20.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1743067%288 W · 142 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa540…e8a1backed August Holmgren67c18.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.028575.3%64 W · 21 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c0a…f6bdbacked August Holmgren74c17.06$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5113268.9%91 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc203…8beebacked August Holmgren63c16.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.138764.4%56 W · 31 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.