Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21f5ea937d09d192b5dfd0277cfd9a4054069007eba073e1ef8a7e00f357c156
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 414.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 173.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 28c | 139.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 25c | 121.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…22e5backed Yes | 36c | 102.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 99.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 31c | 94.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 79.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 75.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 72.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 71c | 64.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…fd4ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 69c | 55.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 77c | 51.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 38c | 49.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 33c | 48.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 70c | 48.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 28c | 40.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 40.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 76c | 38.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked Yes | 33c | 37.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 31.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 26.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 67c | 24.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 22.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…9966backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 19.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.