Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0151aac29660810f94c68aa669ea614911bb697017fdafbc9a21d47b2859935
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes | 2c | 1,002$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 443.26$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 419.35$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 78c | 382.58$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…8b76backed No | 73c | 359.99$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 50c | 295.79$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.97 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 26c | 293.75$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 25c | 191.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 27c | 183.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…aa8fbacked Yes | 27c | 169.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad33…0cebbacked Yes | 68c | 149.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 33c | 131.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 54c | 98.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 15c | 90.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 15c | 89.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce4…5385backed Yes | 72c | 84.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 83.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2318…bbbfbacked Yes | 80c | 77.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 35c | 74.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 57c | 60.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 67c | 59.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 36c | 46.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 43c | 43.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…dce9backed Yes | 39c | 38.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 31c | 37.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 47c | 37.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 53c | 34.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 80c | 28.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178b…0c67backed Yes | 37c | 28.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…22e5backed Yes | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 65c | 26.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 47c | 25.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…747ebacked No | 66c | 23.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 78c | 21.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 18.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 74c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.