Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-01-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2214ff133c38a65ab1b9441c9ae817755d2ef9c12ecdc33826ac900ca377b691
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked Yes | 70c | 6,145$4,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,817.55 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 38c | 3,262$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…91c5backed Yes | 22c | 3,220$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,501.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 1,658$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.05 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 902.29$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.32 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 25c | 717.45$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.23 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 78c | 600$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.05 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 43c | 462.1$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.47 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 31c | 429.24$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.49 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 79c | 365.15$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.01 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…590abacked Yes | 33c | 136.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed No | 52c | 134.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 80c | 130.47$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 25c | 122.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…bf93backed No | 37c | 109.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…0ddcbacked Yes | 55c | 109.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…10ebbacked No | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba94…c78bbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945d…7348backed Yes | 76c | 86.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 28c | 80.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 44c | 67.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 78c | 64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 23c | 56.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed Yes | 76c | 17.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-01-24?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-01-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.