Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-01-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7325f4ef8cf00b6eb271c58ec331e13b509c7058f90afe023d1f9dd96234283b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes | 55c | 8,327$4,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,578.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 43c | 8,000$3,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,559.98 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 49c | 4,800$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 43c | 4,104$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,327.01 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 56c | 3,303$1,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,854.18 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 26c | 2,642$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.49 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 14c | 1,110$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.2 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 45c | 1,107$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.85 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 45c | 884.79$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.12 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 50c | 825$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.5 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 18c | 640$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.05 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 53c | 581.43$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.87 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 51c | 440.9$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.04 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Yes | 22c | 427.27$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 45c | 399.91$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.21 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 56c | 324.09$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.16 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 43c | 300$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 21c | 293.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…590abacked Yes | 40c | 257.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed No | 43c | 213.63$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.13 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 45c | 176$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 37c | 170$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 56c | 128.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Yes | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…3587backed Yes | 40c | 100.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2b…449cbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6257…99f6backed Yes | 17c | 94.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 58c | 91.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 51c | 91.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…8b71backed Yes | 57c | 78.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked No | 45c | 67.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 51c | 58.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 53c | 54.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…c9e4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…7782backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 43c | 49.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed No | 45c | 48.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed No | 45c | 44.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1190…2f25backed No | 45c | 41.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 62c | 30.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-01-24?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?No won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-01-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.