Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2265d86999e7ee16515ea324209bd4ac114154f722ea3e49c1fa688db630c24d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 48c | 390.83$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.6 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 142$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 13c | 90.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 28c | 81.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 35c | 80.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 79.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 41c | 77.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 39c | 77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 76.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 75.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 62c | 59.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 30c | 53.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed No | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 46.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 69c | 40.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 52c | 38.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 34c | 34.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 60c | 33.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 77c | 32.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 59c | 27.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 67c | 26.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 40c | 25.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 53c | 24.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 21.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd0…df3fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…b1a9backed No | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 74c | 14.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C or higher on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.