Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22c74780fc4d5e2cea7cff354a46f60b13c46dd9c2a87e8363923a2dc2d7ef39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,183$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.64 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…a88dbacked Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 71c | 309.08$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.33 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 33c | 227.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.44 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed No | 79c | 191.12$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.98 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 37c | 191.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.18 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 36c | 82.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked No | 59c | 60.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.7wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 32c | 57.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 56.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…46c5backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e38…c9edbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked Yes | 54c | 24.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 17.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.