NHL · resolved market
Will there be 3+ fights in NHL 4 Nations Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2363641698db241b801dc087831b759f03d39a64d14ea86d9ca80678d3c5b374
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81a0…6feebacked Yes | 19c | 2,601$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 80c | 1,820$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.08 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 20c | 1,275$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…18fabacked Yes | 20c | 1,061$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…9e63backed Yes | 20c | 860$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…7f20backed No | 69c | 751$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…a1dcbacked Yes | 18c | 544.97$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 337.37$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bb…b014backed Yes | 31c | 235$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…bf9abacked Yes | 23c | 226.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa183…0d38backed Yes | 31c | 226$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 210$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…7242backed Yes | 31c | 206$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…03ccbacked Yes | 20c | 196.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 18c | 187.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 317 | 44.2%140 W · 177 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes | 20c | 186.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 16c | 175.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 253 | 40.7%103 W · 150 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…07abbacked Yes | 31c | 169$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1f…aa60backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…4554backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…2dcfbacked Yes | 16c | 127.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Yes | 16c | 122.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 731 | 57.5%420 W · 311 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 20c | 122$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135d…6cb6backed Yes | 20c | 121.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9789…21d1backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf482…d3c3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…c3f5backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42d…abd8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x485a…3deabacked No | 69c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x717b…07f2backed Yes | 35c | 78.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…fa4dbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3070…74f4backed Yes | 19c | 59.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12f…fcc9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…5455backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0802…81cabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9f…e103backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 198 | 36.9%73 W · 125 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.