Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Sonego vs Herbert
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2372f8b2598925b4f0c7d1d5210e37cdddbf33a8b1a10e6c240ecf1456695666
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sonegoof Sonego, Herbert
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sonego | 43c | 500$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.81 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Herbert | 45c | 420.75$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.22 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Herbert | 40c | 220.82$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 1,515 | 37.7%571 W · 944 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Sonego | 62c | 210.79$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Sonego | 57c | 210.48$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc81…e889backed Herbert | 45c | 189.51$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 181 | 42%76 W · 105 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8505…e4ddbacked Herbert | 35c | 165.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sonego | 55c | 165.07$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Herbert | 63c | 148.04$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Herbert | 63c | 120$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 643 | 46.2%297 W · 346 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Herbert | 51c | 87.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sonego | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…3699backed Sonego | 70c | 36.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Herbert | 30c | 36.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 174 | 36.8%64 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Sonego vs Herbertthis page
- Lorenzo Sonego vs. Pierre-Hugues Herbert: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Pierre-Hugues HerbertLorenzo Sonego won
- Set Handicap: Sonego (-1.5) vs Herbert (+1.5)Herbert won
- Set Handicap: Sonego (-2.5) vs Herbert (+2.5)Herbert won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.