Asian League · resolved market
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2025-11-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23c9101efb37263d6607542edf9c7d1899015571c6ab5654a1bda6e825c1f29d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 39c | 30,000$11,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,300.01 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 14,818$9,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,038.98 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 57c | 10,547$5,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,989.18 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…2c9abacked No | 63c | 4,481$2,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,817.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 21c | 4,360$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.99 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 61c | 2,947$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797.31 | 170 | 56.5%96 W · 74 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 47c | 1,680$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.24 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 44c | 818.84$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.64 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 56c | 792.84$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.26 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f4…4dfbbacked Yes | 74c | 389.06$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c0…e18fbacked Yes | 76c | 180.03$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Yes | 71c | 155.64$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 41c | 154.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.33 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 37c | 146$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 40c | 88.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b0d2backed No | 22c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea4…f025backed Yes | 77c | 40.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…e75cbacked Yes | 68c | 22.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked No | 65c | 20.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04fd…ef17backed No | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2025-11-01?this page
- Will Changchun Yatai FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Changchun Yatai FC win on 2025-11-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.