Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x249910c0d8f6484d0e9b7d214a05990776fabc2bc8a1b4e2449b5babe3922e05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noskovaof Gauff, Noskova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd2d…0344backed Gauff | 50c | 977.88$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.38 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Noskova | 57c | 460.99$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.23 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…698bbacked Noskova | 38c | 374.84$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.2 | 84 | 73.8%62 W · 22 L | +24.4wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Gauff | 41c | 249.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Noskova | 61c | 189.76$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 247 | 47.4%117 W · 130 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Noskova | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Noskova | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 153 | 37.9%58 W · 95 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed Gauff | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Noskova | 59c | 58.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Noskova | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 134 | 58.2%78 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3e…b265backed Noskova | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Noskova | 59c | 39.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 436 | 47.2%206 W · 230 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…38d5backed Noskova | 59c | 37.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +9.1wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Noskova | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Gauff | 39c | 36.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Noskova | 71c | 34.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Noskova | 58c | 28.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc9…c790backed Gauff | 52c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dc…c980backed Noskova | 63c | 18.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 70 | 75.7%53 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42d3…32a1backed Noskova | 62c | 16.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5)this page
- Madrid Open: Linda Noskova vs Coco GauffLinda Noskova won
- Noskova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Noskova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Noskova vs GauffNoskova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.