TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Nebraska Cornhuskersof Illinois Fighting Illini, Nebraska Cornhuskers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,003
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,677

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,003 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xabb8…bba3backed Nebraska Cornhuskers57c7,730$4,398 inWon+$3,331.224351.4%125 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Illinois Fighting Illini58c6,017$3,500 inLost-$3,50035151.9%182 W · 169 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Illinois Fighting Illini43c1,726$742 inLost-$742.1912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Nebraska Cornhuskers40c750$303 inWon+$447.549746.5%231 W · 266 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Illinois Fighting Illini55c581.99$320 inLost-$320.165825.7%169 W · 489 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Illinois Fighting Illini44c333$147 inLost-$146.525,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd202…964dbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers7c302.58$21 inWon+$281.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,328.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Nebraska Cornhuskers45c260$117 inWon+$14382048.2%395 W · 425 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Nebraska Cornhuskers44c204.55$90 inWon+$114.5550546.9%237 W · 268 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Illinois Fighting Illini49c102.04$50 inLost-$5079448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Nebraska Cornhuskers45c100$45 inWon+$551,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers43c100$43 inWon+$571,48743%639 W · 848 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Illinois Fighting Illini44c51.57$23 inLost-$22.694,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Illinois Fighting Illini44c48.82$21 inLost-$21.4810037%37 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers45c24.82$11 inWon+$13.651,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.