Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2562c68d81c1d3268e5c08c64b499f3472443086b00210176a4efa403547f3d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 1,771$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.51 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 42c | 733.02$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.03 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 665.26$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 80c | 625$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 22c | 535.21$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.15 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 69c | 400$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 287.12$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.84 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 20c | 190$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 74c | 189.04$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.89 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 60c | 155.16$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over | 16c | 152.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 106.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Under | 67c | 82.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…67ebbacked Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 36c | 54.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 36c | 54.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 36c | 54.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 36c | 54.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 28c | 47.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 43c | 39.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 75c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 53c | 20.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 75c | 14.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 1.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. SC Preußen Münster: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Holstein Kiel vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5Under won
- Holstein Kiel vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5Under won
- Holstein Kiel vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)SC Preußen Münster won
- Spread: SC Preußen Münster (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: SC Preußen Münster (-2.5)Holstein Kiel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.