Tennis · resolved market
ITF Rio Claro: Luiza Fullana vs Marjorie Souza
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25715609fda6f54cb86d4e55d1a79b622ebaac883cbc2a481e93921cb48dea7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marjorie Souzaof Luiza Fullana, Marjorie Souza
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Marjorie Souza | 28c | 1,502$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.3 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Luiza Fullana | 46c | 422.49$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.16 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Luiza Fullana | 74c | 364.73$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.41 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Luiza Fullana | 74c | 308$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.92 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Marjorie Souza | 56c | 233.11$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.57 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Marjorie Souza | 26c | 169.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.23 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Luiza Fullana | 71c | 168.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Marjorie Souza | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 273 | 44.7%122 W · 151 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Luiza Fullana | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Luiza Fullana | 72c | 138.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Marjorie Souza | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.62 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Luiza Fullana | 72c | 104.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Luiza Fullana | 74c | 103$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Luiza Fullana | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Luiza Fullana | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…c2d0backed Luiza Fullana | 72c | 68.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Luiza Fullana | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Luiza Fullana | 72c | 61.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Luiza Fullana | 72c | 53.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Luiza Fullana | 72c | 52.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 516 | 44.8%231 W · 285 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…206cbacked Marjorie Souza | 24c | 47.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 856 | 37.7%323 W · 533 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Marjorie Souza | 26c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 726 | 38.8%282 W · 444 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Luiza Fullana | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Luiza Fullana | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 324 | 52.5%170 W · 154 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Luiza Fullana | 72c | 37.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Luiza Fullana | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…21a4backed Luiza Fullana | 74c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 90 | 61.1%55 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…6415backed Luiza Fullana | 72c | 23.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Marjorie Souza | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Luiza Fullana | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Marjorie Souza | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Marjorie Souza | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.