Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2596f7aa79bc3924ddc61b2f7103335bf3502863d2ee53b8573e404e3d616a6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 17c | 351.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked No | 69c | 289.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 10c | 280.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 57c | 258.51$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.34 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…8739backed No | 30c | 165.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 138.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 43c | 118.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 42c | 109.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 41c | 98.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 92.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…958bbacked Yes | 79c | 60.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 53c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 36c | 50.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed8…42a4backed Yes | 33c | 46.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 45c | 43.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…77bebacked Yes | 71c | 42.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 50c | 42.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 61c | 38.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 52c | 36.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 36.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 50c | 30.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…42c3backed Yes | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 54c | 24.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3f…3578backed No | 58c | 22.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 21.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 72c | 14.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.