Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Celta de Vigo win on 2025-09-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25c8151db6f1be6b12c3cf5449b1601f8194c4fcea5c6a9cc3fbe1746ccfe8d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +175.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 25c | 2,050$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.5 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 75c | 2,030$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.41 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed No | 78c | 642.77$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.77 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 74c | 572.46$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.84 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f3…10b7backed Yes | 26c | 553.23$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 22c | 517.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 23c | 261$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 22c | 207.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 18c | 199.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 23c | 149.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 30c | 147.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed No | 77c | 110.39$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 24c | 103.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…72adbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…76dfbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bf…019fbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed No | 78c | 87.18$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 72.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 22c | 72.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 70c | 71.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…df1bbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 29.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x493e…f994backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked No | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…06a9backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Celta de Vigo win on 2025-09-25?this page
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Celta de Vigo end in a draw?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.