Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs No Hoodwink - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x263d135f216701ff174f86186c3a7420c6768727f5997f4489f05bcd06908065
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Spirit Academy, No Hoodwink
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Spirit Academy | 48c | 1,852$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.48 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed No Hoodwink | 24c | 1,300$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 324 | 45.1%146 W · 178 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked Spirit Academy | 79c | 1,145$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.18 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed No Hoodwink | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdccd…f41abacked No Hoodwink | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Spirit Academy | 46c | 553.2$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.33 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked No Hoodwink | 11c | 471$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked No Hoodwink | 28c | 447.59$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 424.05$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.51 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 410$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.01 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -17.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed No Hoodwink | 52c | 312.62$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.28 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…be27backed No Hoodwink | 20c | 310.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 210 | 47.6%100 W · 110 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…affdbacked No Hoodwink | 50c | 299.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked No Hoodwink | 15c | 244.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked Spirit Academy | 40c | 236.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.17 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Spirit Academy | 48c | 232.31$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.22 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked Spirit Academy | 50c | 225.63$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.62 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Spirit Academy | 77c | 224.8$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 208.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…e654backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed No Hoodwink | 51c | 177.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9f…1f47backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 127$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…b6b4backed Spirit Academy | 52c | 126.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Spirit Academy | 43c | 110.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed No Hoodwink | 56c | 109.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 100.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d8…c931backed No Hoodwink | 57c | 100.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 82.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…ddd2backed No Hoodwink | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | +16.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…89ebbacked Spirit Academy | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…cfcbbacked Spirit Academy | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…5628backed No Hoodwink | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed No Hoodwink | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed No Hoodwink | 44c | 36.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No Hoodwink | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs No Hoodwink - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs No Hoodwink (BO3) - Asgard Championship PlayoffsSpirit Academy won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs No Hoodwink - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.